“2019 Could Be Much Gloomier Than 2018”

What impact did happenings in the Korean Peninsula (Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit and rapprochement between North Korea and South Korea) have on peace and stability in the region in 2018?

The year 2018 had exciting developments on the Korean Peninsula. On June 12, 2018, the world witnessed an unprecedented summit meeting of US President, Donald Trump and North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, in Singapore. The meeting rekindled hopes for a final peace to end the Korean Conflict of the 1950s that has only known an armistice, but not a treaty as is usually the case after international conflicts. This was the first-ever meeting between leaders of the two countries. At the end, they signed a joint statement, agreeing to security guarantees for North Korea, new peaceful relations, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, recovery of soldiers’ remains, and follow-up negotiations between high-level officials.

However, since this ground-breaking day, not much has happened directly between them as both sides have been giving conflicting interpretations to their joint declaration after the summit.  The June 12 meeting gave impetus to a series of encouraging exchanges between the two Koreas to improve relations and build confidence. It is now incumbent on South Korea’s leader to initiate measures to revitalise US-North Korean direct talks.

So much hope was raised when the America and North Korean leaders met in Singapore on June 12, 2018. Six months on, can you say the hopes have been dashed? Or are there still prospects of durable peace and stability returning to the Korean Peninsula after decades of tensions?

Whatever the case, the two Koreas are talking regularly and engaging in peace building measures. The opening of a joint liaison office across the border in North Korea to maintain constant communication, with about 20 officials from each country manning the office, is indicative of progress made. This is a significant step from the old days of only communicating by phone and fax. Current engagements offer a new vista of hope to long lasting peace and why not, reunification of the Korean Peninsula?

Antagonism between the US and North Korea over the latter’s nuclear weapons programme remains very high. The US recently cancelled a planned meeting between Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo and North Korean authorities, on fears that it will not yield meaningful results with regard to denuclearization. The growing unpredictability of US President Donald Trump, emanating from a number of issues, especially his renunciation of the international nuclear deal with Iran, has seen the US re-impose sanctions on Teheran - much against the views of America’s Western allies. The decision has thrown more cold water on initial high expectations and discouraged North Korea from making important concessions.

As we enter 2019, how do you see the world turning out – political-wise and in...