Libyan Conflict: Tackling Stalemate

Since the forceful departure of Libya’s iconic leader Muammar Qaddafi from power, the country has been marred by conflicts emanating from both internal and external forces leading primarily to the collapse of the central institutions and the creation of dozens of local militias. These militia groups which have become veritable political stakeholders in the country, have extended their tentacles beyond the borders making the situation very opaque and extremely difficult to handle by the different international mediators. Over the past few years, attempts for a political resolution to Libya's conflict have failed at several conferences, including those held in Paris, Palermo, Abu Dhabi and Berlin. At the Paris Summit of November 12, co-organized by the UN, Germany and Italy, several regional and international heads of state came together to support the ongoing political process in Libya, in particular the presidential and parliamentary elections that was slated for 24 December 2021.
To most participants, holding elections is imperative in forming a single central authority that would enjoy electoral legitimacy and recognition by the international community, which could lead to stability and democracy for Libya. That is why, though at the end of the summit, participants left without any meaningful international engagement to support the country's stabilization, they agreed to sanction any person who “disrupts” the election. In October 2020 ceasefire agreement created a base for the political negotiations and establishment of an interim government that had the important task of preparing the country for elections in December, along with commitments to unify Libya’s divided financial and security institutions.
The formation of the new government with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh at the helm, did not change things, as any attempt to progress was thwarted by entrenched internal and external spoilers and structural elements. Some local actors in either of the disputing sides, who feel they do not benefit from the status quo such as members of the Libyan House of Representatives (HoR) including Aguila Saleh, speaker of HoR, and Marshal Khalifa Haftar who commands the East, are more interested in clinging to power rather than helping the country move forward. The appointment of a new Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha, former interior minister by a majority of the Libyan Parliament to head a new national unity government has now made things more complicated for the United Nations and independent mediators.
Coupled with these egoistic attitude is the significant absence of a firm constitutional base. To date, there is no framework to define who should run for the presidency and what their powers should be. A presidential elections bill was signed in September by the speaker of HoR, Aguila Saleh, but it sparked anger and division among critics who say it bypassed due process and favoured a run by either Haftar or Saleh. Ultimately, the election bill...